TECHNOLOGYISNEITHERGOODNORBADNORNEUTRALBUT...
Kranzberg’s famous first law of technology is a comment on the role that context and circumstance have in determining technological consequence. Technology itself is bereft of intent. Intent is determined by the wielder and consequence by the environment. In a world where technology is ubiquitous, intention is determinative.
Unlike financial capital, technological capital is accessible, albeit disproportionately, to all. The broken system that has undermined income as a proxy for economic value and created barriers to accessing wealth can be circumvented by those with the appropriate skills to create technological opportunity. New digital economies have emerged to fill the gaps left by wage inflation that falls well short of both productivity and asset price inflation.
The broken system that has undermined income as a proxy for economic value and created barriers to accessing wealth can be circumvented by those with the appropriate skills to create technological opportunity.
These emergent digital economies are facilitating dramatic wealth accumulation for a small few and supplemental earnings for a great many. They are the new ladders and ledges being created to replace the elevators that have been destroyed. They are, however, only accessible to those with the relevant skills and education. Many will be left behind.
But even those who aren’t active users of these technological systems are subject to them in the form of surveillance, social scoring, digital assistants, communication and analytics. These technologies have the potential to exert material influence over an individual’s economic and social trajectory regardless of merit.
The combination of emerging technological economies and widespread technological infrastructure are the building blocks for our economic future. The ways in which they are utilised and regulated will define social mobility for decades to come.
As the efficacy and capability of these technologies continue to scale, so will their reach and consequence.
WHENINDUSTRYREVOLTS
Mechanisation, electricity, computers and the internet have been the technological fulcrums of the four contemporary ages of industry. In each era, the capacity for human endeavour and productivity expanded exponentially.
INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
The first industrial revolution occurred when the steam engine and novel methods of organising labour within factories led to the replacement of human workers with machines.
The modern factory system can be considered the greatest technological innovation of its time, encouraging shifts from the agricultural sector to manufacturing and transforming many cities into industrial centres. Yet, many authors argue that despite major transformations brought about by these technological innovations, overall social mobility rates were largely unaffected.
Instead, a new class of industrial workers emerged who faced a growing divide between themselves and the owners of industrial capital. This period is therefore characterised by the transformation of long-standing occupational structures.
NOTABLE INVENTIONS
| 1700s | Coal Mining |
| 1700s | Crop Rotation or Norfolk Four-Course System |
| 1760s | Selective Breeding |
| 1763 | Steam LocomotiveThomas Newcomen invented the first steam engine in 1712, but the first practical version was invented by James Watt in 1763. Watt’s more efficient engine was introduced commercially in 1776. |
| 1764 | Spinning JennyThe ‘Spinning Jenny’ revolutionised cloth manufacture, allowing the industrial production of cloth in factories rather than in the homes of textile workers. |
| 1769 | Arkwright's Water Frame Spinning Machine |
| 1771 | The First Factory |
| 1775 | The Spinning Mule |
| 1783 | Steamboat |
| 1786 | The Power Loom |
| 1786 | Threshing Machine |
| 1790 | Sewing Machine |
| 1792 | Gas Lighting |
| 1793 | The Cotton Gin |
| 1795 | Blood Transfusion |
| 1796 | Smallpox VaccineThe smallpox vaccine, introduced by Edward Jenner in 1796, was the world’s first successful vaccine. Jenner’s work had a foundational impact on the development of immunology. |
| 1800 | Electric Battery |
| 1803 | The Modern Assembly Line |
| 1804 | Steam Locomotive |
| 1807 | Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)Franco-Swiss inventor Franco de Rivaz created the world's first ICE and was granted a patent for his invention in Paris in 1807. |
| 1810 | Tin Can |
| 1814 | Spectrometer |
| 1816 | Stethoscope |
| 1822 | Photograph |
| 1823 | Waterproof Clothing |
| 1824 | Cement/ Concrete |
| 1826 | Matches |
| 1829 | Typewriter |
| 1831 | Electromagnetic Generators |
| 1837 | TelegraphySir William Fothergill Cooke and Charles Wheatstone demonstrated the first electrical telegraph in 1837, connecting Euston Station and Camden Town in London. |
| 1838 | The Hydrogen Fuel Cell |
| 1844 | Hypodermic Syringes |
| 1846 | Diethyl Ether Anaesthesia |
| 1853 | Aspirin |
| 1856 | SteelThe Bessemer Process, named for inventor Henry Bessemer, was the first process devised for mass-producing steel from molten pig iron. The process removes impurities from iron via oxidation. |
| 1867 | Dynamite |
| 1867 | Antiseptic Theory |
TECHNOLOGICAL
REVOLUTION
During the second industrial revolution, significant increases in the production of goods via assembly lines brought many spillover effects. One was a need for better transportation systems to carry goods to market. Steamships facilitated transatlantic travel, and railroads spread across Europe and North America.
The invention of the light bulb led to a significant shift in work patterns, increasing demand for labour and extending working hours with overnight shifts. This technological change forced workers to restructure their family lives. A larger working class flourished, with increased economic and social participation opportunities for women.
This transformation of the private lives of workers was eventually coupled with conflict between workers and factory owners in the form of unionisation.
NOTABLE INVENTIONS
| 1861 | Elevators |
| 1872 | Air Brake |
| 1873 | QWERTY Keyboard |
| 1875 | Electric Railways and Tramways |
| 1876 | Telephone |
| 1877 | Phonograph |
| 1878 | The Light Bulb or Incandescent Lamp |
| 1882 | Electric Iron |
| 1883 | Solar Cell (Panel) |
| 1885 | Skyscrapers |
| 1886 | Automobile |
| 1887 | Wind Turbine |
| 1890 | Electric Metro |
| 1892 | Tractor |
| 1892 | Cholera Vaccine |
| 1893 | Open Heart Surgery |
| 1895 | X-RayWhen Wilhelm Röntgen began studying X-Rays in 1895, his work had an almost immediate impact in finding and removing bullets from wounded soldiers. |
| 1896 | Radio |
| 1897 | Mosquitos & Malaria |
| 1903 | Airplane |
| 1908 | Electric Washing Machine |
| 1913 | Gas (Petroleum Refining)William Burton, a chemist and executive for the Standard Oil Co. in Indiana, developed a process for breaking down crude oil into byproducts, including gasoline. |
| 1913 | Electric Refrigerator |
| 1913 | Moving Assembly LineThe moving assembly line was developed for the Ford Model T at the Highland Park Ford Plant, Michigan. The process reduced production time for each vehicle to 93 minutes. |
| 1927 | Television |
| 1936 | Universal Turing MachineThe Universal Turing Machine is foundational to our modern understanding of computers, with Turing himself coming to be known as the father of modern computing. |
| 1940 | Disposable Catheters |
| 1941 | Cardiac Pacemaker |
| 1942 | Nuclear PowerPhysicist Enrico Fermi, working as part of the Manhattan Project, demonstrated the first human-created, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction at the University of Chicago in 1942. |
| 1945 | Atomic Bomb |
| 1947 | Semiconductors / TransistorAmerican physicists John Bardeen and Walter Brattain invented the point-contact transistor invented in 1947. Transistors are a key component in all modern electronics. |
| 1956 | Shipping Container |
| 1956 | Shopping Malls |
| 1965 | Portable Defibrillator |
DIGITAL
REVOLUTION
Better transportation systems coupled with electricity paved the way for the expansion of information and communication technologies (ICT) throughout the third industrial revolution. During this period, the most significant technological changes resulted from the digitalisation of electronics and associated advances in computing.
This process brought information to the forefront of the transformation of social, economic, and political life. A new demand for skilled workers emerged, with automation replacing labour in routine tasks. This promoted job polarisation and wage inequalities among groups with differing levels of skill and educational attainment.
Workers without a college education have been most adversely affected by the advent of routine-biased technology, but the mechanisation of agriculture that characterised this period has also had further detrimental effects on local social and environmental systems.
NOTABLE INVENTIONS
| 1967 | Floppy Disc Drive |
| 1967 | DRAM or Memory |
| 1967 | Home ConsoleThe design of the first video game console consisted of a brown wooden box with controllers attached. It could be connected to any TV set and had six games. |
| 1969 | Artificial Heart |
| 1970 | ARPANET |
| 1970 | In-space robot |
| 1971 | |
| 1971 | MicroprocessorsIntel developed the first microprocessor, the Intel 4004. The size of a fingernail, it delivered the same computing power as the first computer – the room-sized ENIAC – built in 1946. |
| 1971 | MRI machine |
| 1971 | ABS (Anti-Locking Brake System) |
| 1972 | Digital Camera |
| 1972 | Arcade Games |
| 1972 | Humanoid Robot |
| 1972 | Prozac |
| 1973 | Video Home System (VHS)The first commercially successful video tape recorder (VTR) was developed by Ampex Corporation in 1956. |
| 1974 | Personal Computer |
| 1974 | Universal Product Code (UPC) |
| 1975 | Handheld Mobile PhoneMotorola produced the first handheld mobile phone in 1973, with the first ever call being made by Motorola engineer Martin Cooper on the DynaTAC 8000X on April 3 of that year. |
| 1975 | Push-through can top |
| 1977 | Walkman |
| 1980 | Hybrid Car |
| 1981 | Dial-up (Modem) |
| 1981 | Direct-Drive Arm Robot |
| 1982 | Compact Disc (CD) |
| 1985 | MP3 Player |
| 1985 | Robot-Assisted Surgical Procedure |
| 1986 | Disposable Camera |
| 1990 | World Wide WebIn 1989, programmer Tim Berners-Lee laid out his vision for the World Wide Web while working as a software engineer at CERN. The first web page was served by the end of 1990. |
| 1990 | Bluetooth |
| 1992 | Smartphones |
| 1993 | HTML |
| 1993 | Bionic Arm |
| 1994 | Social Networking ServiceSixDegrees.com, launched in 1997 by Andrew Weinreich, is widely recognised as the first social networking site. It allowed users to upload profiles and befriend other users. |
| 1995 | Blog |
| 1995 | DVD |
| 1995 | Self-service bicycle |
| 1996 | |
| 1996 | Biomimetic robot |
| 1996 | Viagra |
| 1999 | USB Flashdrive |
VIRTUAL
REVOLUTION
The technologies of the fourth industrial revolution are increasing the job polarisation gap further still. During this period, networked smart machines have disrupted not only established relations of production but also the boundaries between the physical and the virtual.
The speed and scope of transformation during this period means this fourth industrial revolution has brought about an unprecedented shift in how people relate to each other. The ongoing shift towards non-standard forms of employment that typifies this era is linked to reduced worker benefits and welfare protection, with significant socio-economic implications.
In a world transformed by the widespread use of networked technologies, humanity faces a significant divide between those who can access and use new technologies and those who cannot, counterbalancing the considerable opportunities that are being created in new economic sectors.
NOTABLE INVENTIONS
| 1991 | Offshore Wind Power |
| 1997 | AI & Machine LearningOne of the most notable events in the development of AI happened in 1997, when Deep Blue became the first computer chess-playing system to beat reigning world chess champion, Garry Kasparov. |
| 1998 | Quantum Computing |
| 1999 | Edge ComputingEdge computing is a decentralised model of computing in which computing and data storage are brought closer to sources of data, in order to decrease response times and save bandwidth. |
| 1999 | Wifi |
| 2000 | Blu-Ray Disc |
| 2000 | 3D Limb and Organ Printing |
| 2000 | Camera Phones |
| 2001 | Gene Editing, CRISPR |
| 2002 | Autonomous Vacuum Cleaner |
| 2003 | Bioprinting |
| 2003 | Human GenomeThe Human Genome Project, launched in 1990 with funding from the U.S. government, was declared complete after successfully mapping the entirety of the human genome in April 2003. |
| 2004 | |
| 2005 | HD Colour 3D Printer |
| 2005 | Boston Dynamics' Big Dog |
| 2005 | YouTube |
| 2005 | BECCS |
| 2005 | Face Transplants |
| 2006 | Stem Cell |
| 2007 | Bipedal Commercial Robot |
| 2007 | iPhone |
| 2007 | Autonomous VehiclesDARPA held competitions between 2004 and 2013 meant to advance autonomous technology. By 2007, when the competition used a 60-mile urban route, four cars made it to the finish line. |
| 2007 | Bionic limbs (eyes, pancreas, bones, heart, ...) |
| 2008 | Internet of Things |
| 2008 | 3D-Printed home |
| 2008 | Android Powered Phone |
| 2009 | BlockchainBitcoin's "Genesis Block", developed by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, was minted in 2009. This was the first instance of a proof-of-work blockchain system. |
| 2010 | 3D-Printed car |
| 2010 | Non-Military Drones |
| 2010 | |
| 2010 | Organs-on-Chips |
| 2013 | Robotic-Assisted Transplant |
| 2014 | Tesla Autopilot |
| 2015 | Augmented Reality |
| 2016 | Virtual RealityThe first VR headset was produced in 1968, but it was only with the Oculus Rift that we saw the first consumer VR headset of the modern era. |
| 2016 | Smart Mirror |
| 2016 | Realistic Humanoid Robot (Sophia) |
| 2019 | 5G |
| 2019 | ARAS (Augmented Reality Assisted Surgery) |
TIKTOKKILLEDTHEVIDEOSTAR
The ubiquity of technology and the standardisation of internet-based connectivity has facilitated the emergence of new digital economies. In some instances, these economies 1) allow participants to trade excess supply, 2) facilitate new ways to commercialise existing activities and influence and 3) generate income in wholly digital spaces from wholly digital assets.
These new economies have created new income opportunities for those with the requisite skills and profile to access them. That income is typically supplementary and goes towards maintaining or slightly augmenting existing standards of living, but in some cases it can result in extraordinary and rapid wealth accumulation independent of traditional mobility pathways.
Digital economies have emerged in direct opposition to the declining prosperity prospects offered by contemporary economic systems. They exist largely outside and independent of established tax and legal jurisdictions and, consequently, quietly erode loyalty towards a social contract that is failing its constituents. The promise on which education and civic obedience failed to deliver has been co-opted by cryptocurrency and influence platforms.
Influencers, crypto investors, streamers, NFT artists and eSports stars are all constituent agents within these new digital economies. They are generating extreme wealth in a short amount of time and garnering much of the public attention around digital economies in the process.
But for most users, these new income streams amount to, at best, small income supplements used to buy a new laptop or take a holiday and, at worst, the money needed to pay rent and keep the lights on.
We are now at the precipice of a generation of new digital economies spearheaded by data and dynamic digital assets. As mixed reality lenswear, IOT infrastructure and digital assets intersect, we will see an explosion of new markets, jobs and resources.
EMERGING
ECONOMIES IN
THE VIRTUAL
REVOLUTION
CRYPTO ECONOMY
| 2013 | BitcoinFirst decentralised digital currency. With no need for intermediaries, the transactions are verified through cryptography and recorded on blockchain. |
| 2016 | SteemitSocial media platform on blockchain that allows bloggers to earn coins for their content and users for their curation. |
| 2017 | BraveWeb browser allowing ad-free and private navigation. |
| 2018 | EthereumDecentralised, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ethereum enables the creation of an array of blockchain-based applications beyond cryptocurrencies. |
INFLUENCE ECONOMY
| 2010 | Social networking platform allowing users to create a profile, share content and connect with friends, family, colleageus and strangers. |
| 2010 | Online news, social networking and microblogging platform where users communicate via short messages called tweets. |
| 2013 | YouTubeVideo sharing platform owned by Google where users can search for and watch videos posted by other users and upload videos themselves. |
| 2018 | PatreonCrowdfunding platform that allows content creators to charge for a subscription service. |
GIG ECONOMY
| 2007 | EtsyPlatform that allows small businesses to find demand for their products, such as handmade or vintage items. |
| 2013 | UberPlatform connecting clients with drivers and riders via a range of ride-sharing, food delivery, courier and freight apps. |
| 2016 | AirbnbTwo-sided platform that allows property owners to rent their property temporarily to clients. |
| 2020 | FiverrTwo-sided platform for buying and selling digital services, such as graphic design, webediting and user testing. |
SHARING ECONOMY
| 2000 | eBayE-commerce platform enabling consumer-to-consumer sales and, therefore, promoting a circular economy. |
| 2009 | CouchsurfingHospitality exchange platform. A host offers free lodging either as an altruistic act or in exchange for house-sitting. |
| 2014 | BlaBlaCarFrench online carpooling marketplace brokering connections between drivers and passengers in 22 countries. |
| 2014 | GoFundMeCrowdfunding platform. While Indiegogo or Kickstarter enable innovators to ask the general population to fund potential products, GoFundMe focuses on individuals who need to raise money for a cause or life event. |
VIRTUAL ECONOMY
| 2007 | Second LifeMassively multiplayer virtual world with a social purpose. |
| 2007 | Steam MarketplaceMarketplace that enables the sale of virtual assets between players. Third-party platforms also propose this kind of service but as a grey market. |
| 2013 | MinecraftPixellated 3D virtual world which aims to discover and extract raw materials, craft tools and items. |
| 2018 | CryptoKittiesNFT-based platform enabling the sale, trade and collection of cryptocollectibles, virtual assets (here breedable video game cats) relying on a blockchain. |
EMERGING ECONOMIES
CRYPTO
ECONOMY
INFLUENCE
ECONOMY
GIG
ECONOMY
SHARING
ECONOMY
VIRTUAL
ECONOMY
ACEILINGMADEOFCLASS
Millions of people have benefitted from the development of these new tech-enabled economies. They are, for many, an economic escalator where before there was only a ladder. It is undoubtedly positive that these new modes of ascent are predicated on initiative, innovation and ingenuity, but there are fundamental issues inherent in overreliance on these pathways.
A system that requires supplementary income to maintain social status implies that an individual's primary employment should not be obliged to provide a living wage.
Or stated another way, the average industrial wage will be less than the average cost of living. This implies that the natural status of a working citizen is descent into poverty rather than ascent into wealth, stability and security.
Rising Cost of Living vs Income Growth in the United States
NPR, National Center for Education Statistics, Centers For Medicaid and Medicare Services, US Census, Social Security Administration
The new digital economies with the greatest upside also massively favour Caucasian and Asian men to the detriment of all women and Latino and Black men. Participation in these economies requires STEM skills far more commonly found within white and Asian communities. Consequently, the technology and the platforms have been built by and for prototypically white and Asian men.
Those without the STEM skills necessary to access these digital economies are subject to the oppressive ambit of technology without being able to circumnavigate it or adapt it. Social scoring, surveillance states and pervasive data prospecting will compound the challenges faced by the economically vulnerable, producing increasingly fragile lower social classes.
STEM SKILLS
Those without the STEM skills necessary to access these digital economies are subject to the oppressive ambit of technology without being able to circumnavigate it or adapt it. Social scoring, surveillance states and pervasive data prospecting will compound the challenges faced by the economically vulnerable, producing increasingly fragile lower social classes.
ALLWATCHEDOVERBYMACHINESOFNOTSOLOVINGGRACE
We have adjusted, over the last decade, to the idea of people leveraging technology for supplemental or novel income, be that through influence, cryptocurrency, gig jobs or shared assets. What we haven’t entirely become accustomed to is the idea of state actors or tech conglomerates leveraging technology to influence, manipulate or constrain us.
As the role of technology within our lives continues to grow, so too do the risks associated with it. We have become dependent on platforms to communicate, work and learn, and in doing so have ceded sufficient personal data for algorithms to construct individual profiles used to target us for commercial and political gain.
These profiles can also be used to control society more broadly. Nation states, in particular, have acquired enormous capacity to track and surveil their citizens. We see in some countries how this capability is now being used to restrict access to jobs, education, accommodation and travel, significantly curtailing the social mobility prospects of those affected.
As the efficacy and capability of these technologies continue to scale, so will their reach and consequence. In many countries this is likely to enshrine the political and economic status quo in stone and resist unpermissioned mobility. The potential for a technological caste system is looking more and more likely.As the efficacy and capability of these technologies continue to scale, so will their reach and consequence.
AMBIVALENT TECH
ARTIFICAL
INTELLIGENCE
ROBOTICS
SURVEILLANCE
SOCIAL SCORING
BLOCKCHAIN
WHATTHEFUTURELOOKSLIKE
The future is clay moulded by a giant’s hands. Despite the billions of events and people and discoveries that contribute to our future, it tends to be a small number of major systemic issues that define it. Climate change and income inequality are the two hands of this epoch.
Those day to day occurrences add texture, nuance and circumstance. They are minor catalysts that produce both contextual opportunities and challenges, but it is the major catalysts that determine the context and the actors within the world to come.
Social mobility is one of those major catalysts. It has a major impact on the quality of life, the productivity of nations and the artistic expression of societies. It will continue to transform the nature of politics, economics and identity, and if left unchecked, it will create chasms between classes that will take centuries to fix.
FUTURE THEMES
NEO-SOVEREIGNTY
BIOSECURITY
COLLABORATIVE
CAPITALISM
NATURAL
ECOSYSTEMS
SURVEILLED
ANTICIPATINGFUTUREECONOMIESANDMARKETS
Beyond the new digital economies that we already see taking shape today, additional economies and markets—including data, energy and environmental economies—will emerge over the next decade in response to increasing levels of digital fluency and capacity. The shape and necessity of those economies will be determined by circumstances that we are crafting today.
FUTURE ECONOMIES
ENERGY MARKETS
ENVIRONMENTAL
ECONOMIES
BIOPRINTING
MARKETS
HEALTH
ECONOMIES
CITYSTATE
ECONOMIES
BLACK AND GREY
ECONOMIES
THEDIGITALCONTINENT
After all, we call ours a man-made world. And it is that, because mankind, with the aid of its technology, has fashioned our physical and social environment, our institutions, and other accoutrements of our society. But if ours is truly a man-made world, I claim that mankind can re-make it. And in that remaking process, the history of technology can play a very important role in enabling us to meet the challenges besetting mankind now and in the future.
A wall exists around the garden of prosperity and stability we were promised. The ladders of education, hard work and civic responsibility no longer reach high enough to scale it. The walls have been built higher by those within and the ladders shorter to those without. Hope sits astride the top of that wall, moving, inexorably, out of reach.
Technology is both the problem and the solution.
Surveillance infrastructure and social scoring are the cement and aggregates used to raise the wall. But in the shadow of the barricade, new digital markets emerge as a form of economic activism, catapulting people upwards towards the hope that convention can no longer provide.
These new economies are just as inequitably distributed as those that created the malaise of economic inequality in the first place, but they are an understandable response to an iniquitous economic reality. They may temper social frustrations in the short term, but they are unlikely to serve as a long term solution.
In the next part of our exploration of social mobility in the digital age, we will try to forecast which countries are most likely to experience social fragility and economic activism as a result of worsening social mobility.